Dynamics of Epidemics

This article examines how diseases on random networks spread in time. The disease is described by a probability distribution function for the number of infected and recovered individuals, and the probability distribution is described by a generating function. The time development of the disease is obtained by iterating the generating function. In cases where the disease can expand to an epidemic, the probability distribution function is the sum of two parts; one which is static at long times, and another whose mean grows exponentially. The time development of the mean number of infected individuals is obtained analytically. When epidemics occur, the probability distributions are very broad, and the uncertainty in the number of infected individuals at any given time is typically larger than the mean number of infected individuals.Comment: 4 pages and 3 figure

Feasibility model of a high reliability five-year tape transport, volume 2

Analysis of the design features of the modularized tape transport renders a life expectancy in excess of five years. Tests performed on the tape transport were directed toward determining its performance capability. These tests revealed that the tape jitter and skew are in the range achieved by high quality digital tape transports. Guidance of the tape in the lateral sense by the use of the two hybrid crowned rollers proved to be excellent. Tracking was maintained within less than one thousandth inch (approximately 2 micrometers). The guidance capability demonstrated makes possible the achievement of the performance objective of 7.2 x 10 to the 9th power storage capability employing 1500 ft. of one inch wide tape with a packing density of 5,000 bits per inch per track on 80 tracks. Also, the machine showed excellent characteristics operating over a wide range of tape speeds. The basic design concept lends itself to growth and adaptation to a wide range of recorder requirements

Feasibility model of a high reliability five-year tape transport, Volume 1

The development, performance, and test results for the spaceborne magnetic tape transport are discussed. An analytical model of the tape transport was used to optimize its conceptual design. Each of the subsystems was subjected to reliability analyses which included structural integrity, maintenance of system performance within acceptable bounds, and avoidance of fatigue failure. These subsystems were also compared with each other in order to evaluate reliability characteristics. The transport uses no mechanical couplings. Four drive motors, one for each reel and one for each of two capstans, are used in a differential mode. There are two hybrid, spherical, cone tapered-crown rollers for tape guidance. Storage of the magnetic tape is provided by a reel assembly which includes the reel, a reel support structure and bearings, dust seals, and a dc drive motor. A summary of transport test results on tape guidance, flutter, and skew is provided

Random Networks with Tunable Degree Distribution and Clustering

We present an algorithm for generating random networks with arbitrary degree distribution and Clustering (frequency of triadic closure). We use this algorithm to generate networks with exponential, power law, and poisson degree distributions with variable levels of clustering. Such networks may be used as models of social networks and as a testable null hypothesis about network structure. Finally, we explore the effects of clustering on the point of the phase transition where a giant component forms in a random network, and on the size of the giant component. Some analysis of these effects is presented.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figures corrected typos, added two references, reorganized reference

Predicting the size and probability of epidemics in a population with heterogeneous infectiousness and susceptibility

We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity of $u$ and the susceptibility of $v$. Initially a single node is infected, following which a large-scale epidemic may or may not occur. We use a generating function approach to study how heterogeneity affects the probability that an epidemic occurs and, if one occurs, its attack rate (the fraction infected). For fixed average transmissibility, we find upper and lower bounds on these. An epidemic is most likely if infectivity is homogeneous and least likely if the variance of infectivity is maximized. Similarly, the attack rate is largest if susceptibility is homogeneous and smallest if the variance is maximized. We further show that heterogeneity in infectious period is important, contrary to assumptions of previous studies. We confirm our theoretical predictions by simulation. Our results have implications for control strategy design and identification of populations at higher risk from an epidemic.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Effect of creep and shrinkage on the behavior of reinforced concrete members

Two titles published in one volume. "Creep of concrete: influencing factors and prediction" by Adam M Neville and Bernard L. Meyers and "Effect of creep and shrinkage on the behavior of reinforced concrete members" by Adrian Pauw and Bernard L. Meyers."Reprinted from Symposium on Creep of Concrete ; Publication SP-9, The American Concrete Institute.

Fragility and hysteretic creep in frictional granular jamming

The granular jamming transition is experimentally investigated in a two-dimensional system of frictional, bi-dispersed disks subject to quasi-static, uniaxial compression at zero granular temperature. Currently accepted results show the jamming transition occurs at a critical packing fraction $\phi_c$. In contrast, we observe the first compression cycle exhibits {\it fragility} - metastable configuration with simultaneous jammed and un-jammed clusters - over a small interval in packing fraction ($\phi_1 < \phi < \phi_2$). The fragile state separates the two conditions that define $\phi_c$ with an exponential rise in pressure starting at $\phi_1$ and an exponential fall in disk displacements ending at $\phi_2$. The results are explained through a percolation mechanism of stressed contacts where cluster growth exhibits strong spatial correlation with disk displacements. Measurements with several disk materials of varying elastic moduli $E$ and friction coefficients $\mu$, show friction directly controls the start of the fragile state, but indirectly controls the exponential slope. Additionally, we experimentally confirm recent predictions relating the dependence of $\phi_c$ on $\mu$. Under repetitive loading (compression), the system exhibits hysteresis in pressure, and the onset $\phi_c$ increases slowly with repetition number. This friction induced hysteretic creep is interpreted as the granular pack's evolution from a metastable to an eventual structurally stable configuration. It is shown to depend upon the quasi-static step size $\Delta \phi$ which provides the only perturbative mechanism in the experimental protocol, and the friction coefficient $\mu$ which acts to stabilize the pack.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figure

Singularities of Nonlinear Elliptic Systems

Through Morrey's spaces (plus Zorko's spaces) and their potentials/capacities as well as Hausdorff contents/dimensions, this paper estimates the singular sets of nonlinear elliptic systems of the even-ordered Meyers-Elcrat type and a class of quadratic functionals inducing harmonic maps.Comment: 18 pages Communications in Partial Differential Equation